California avocados versus the world

I thought it would be interesting to see where our harvest stands in comparison to the other suppliers of Hass avocados to the US. I used the data from the Hass Avocado Board for “Arrivals” from 2008 to 2016. Here’s how we stack up. 

The two Annual US Arrivals charts show different looks of the total US arrivals and the amount California’s harvest contributed. We’ve had a relatively consistent California harvest with a mean of 338M pounds. During this 9-year period, our highest harvest was 516M pounds in 2010 and the lowest was in 2009 with 159M pounds (alternate bearing years, perhaps?) Clearly seen in the charts is the steep increase of overall arrivals, from less than 1 billion pounds in 2008 to more than 2 billion pounds in 2016. During that same period, California’s harvest has remained relatively flat, which is obvious in the line chart.

I used the HAB numbers to calculate each country’s annual contribution by percentage. In the chart below, the blue line represents California. Note that our percentage is declining on a consistent basis as Mexico’s is growing. We are now consistently under 20% of the overall avocado market in the US. Our lowest year was 2015 with only 12% of the market. 2016 was a big harvest year for us with 366M pounds and we only tagged in at 16% of the overall arrivals. This year, with our smaller crop, we are likely to be less than 10% of the overall arrivals once the final tally is done.

Editorial comment starts now. I have heard CAC’s Tom Bellamore’s “Premium” positioning talk which is an exciting concept. CAC’s web site says, ““Premium” positioning, supported by consistently high-quality production that is delivered to consumers soon after harvest, is at the heart of our long-term strategy.” But, how many buyers look for the California label? I never did before I became a grower and started writing the Weekly Newsline. And, I wander through my grove with my 5-year-old granddaughter as she sings, “Avocados from Mexico, Avocados from Mexico, Avocados from Mexico,” I wonder if premium positioning to the sophisticated consumer is possible with the enormous Avocados from Mexico (AFM) advertising budget. Yes, California fruit tastes better and is a huge benefit to our local markets in the West since our fruit is “farm to quickish-truck-ride to table.” And, retailers continue to pay a small premium for California fruit since they know they will get longer shelf life. But, with handlers getting increasingly higher revenues from imported avocados, AFM’s huge expenditures on advertising, and California’s shrinking percentage of the overall market, it’s a stretch to believe that we can expect special attention from anyone as we move forward. Is it possible to ride on AFM’s ads for increased consumer consumption and save our precious CAC dollars for discovering a better tree, a better rootstock, a better irrigation methodology, etc.?